METR · 2026-01-29

Time Horizon 1.1

“The post-2023 doubling-time is 131 days under TH1.1, compared to 165 days under TH1”

Who

METR

Date

2026-01-29

Evidence

official post with figures what this means

Replication

None recorded

Checked

2026-10-14, against the source page

Links

Source ↗

Also on the page

• Measured from 2024 onward, the doubling time is 109 days under TH1 and 89 days under TH1.1.

What got repeated wrong

• ○ no primary sourceMETR's latest figure is a 105-day doubling time.Attributed to METR's 2026-05-19 Frontier Risk Report in secondary sources; not found in the report's text.
• ◌ supersededAI task length doubles every 7 months.That is METR's 2025 figure. TH1.1 puts it at 131 days since 2023, 89 days since 2024.

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